northern lights aurora forecast

Aurora Forecast Explained: Planning 27-day Ahead

Have you ever looked up at the night sky and seen the incredible spectacle of the Northern Lights? If so, you know how captivating and mesmerizing they can be. But did you know that there is actually a way to predict when they’ll be visible? It’s called Aurora forecasting, and it’s something that scientists have been studying for decades.

In this article, we’ll take a closer look at Aurora forecast and explain what it is, how it works, and why it matters. We will also examine the different types of forecasts – from short-term 3-Day Aurora forecasts to longer-term 27-day ones – and discuss why understanding predictions can be helpful for planning trips and catching a glimpse of the beautiful Northern Lights.

How to Increase Your Chances of Seeing the Northern Lights?

Did you know that over 80% of tourists miss the Northern Lights due to the lack of Aurora knowledge? Don't let that be you! The right time and the right place are the key. Northern Lights Online Course and Aurora mobile app designed for beginners will significantly increase your chances.

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Update: Hey there, we've added 10 free videos from our Ultimate Northern Lights Online Course to this post. In the videos, we explain the mysteries of the Aurora Borealis in simple terms for beginners. You'll learn things like what the Northern Lights really look like and how long the show lasts. Also covered are common shapes, Aurora forecasting, tips for finding the best viewing spot, and more. We made the videos short and right to the point. Enjoy learning new things about one of nature's most incredible light shows.

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How the Northern Lights Are Formed: Charged Particles From the Sun

Have you ever seen the Northern Lights? From icy Scandinavia to the night skies of Alaska, these beautiful Auroras have captivated stargazers around the world. But what exactly are they?

The Northern Lights are created by charged particles emitted by the Sun. As they travel through space, these particles are attracted to Earth's magnetic poles and when they interact with Earth's atmosphere, they create a colorful light display in the night sky.
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To predict when and where these Auroras will occur, scientists monitor Sun's activity for a 27-day Aurora forecast. This is because it takes approximately 27 days for the full rotation of the Sun. Each day, this forecast gives us a value for how active the Northern Lights will be that day.

3-Day Aurora forecasts give us a value for every 3-hour block to get an even shorter-term forecast. This is because particles from the Sun travel approximately three days before arriving to our planet and interacting with our atmosphere.

What Aurora Shapes Can You See?

aurora forecast

Aurora Borealis: Where, When & How to See Northern Lights

Check our article on how to easily find the best place for Northern Lights viewing in 4 easy steps: Where Can I See the Northern Lights

An easy way to find the darkest place ideal for Aurora viewing is to use the light pollution map: Light Pollution Maps for Aurora Hunters

The Northern Lights forecast for 3 days and long-term Aurora forecast for up to 27 days ahead can be found in Lumyros Aurora App

Before going out for your Aurora hunt take Northern Lights Online Course where you will learn all you need to know to successfully hunt for the Northern Lights and significantly increase your chances. This course is designed for beginners so you don't need to worry about not knowing much yet.

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All-in-one tool for Aurora hunting. Try the new experience.

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The 27-Day Aurora Forecast: Predicting the Northern Lights a Rotation Ahead

You might be wondering why a Northern Lights forecast is made 27 days in advance. It all comes down to the Sun's rotation and it's activity. Scientists are able to evaluate Sun's activity and assign to each day an estimated strength value - Kp index. So you can plan your Northern Lights trip ahead of up to 27 days thanks to these prediction models.

The 27-day Aurora Forecast gives a single value for each day. It describes how intense the Aurora might be, ranging from 0 (no aurora) to 9 (very intense). Knowing this can help you make plans to enjoy the Northern Lights if they are likely to be around on a particular night.

How Northern Lights Forecast Works?

If you need more short-term prediction, then you can also check out the 3-Day Aurora Forecast which gives us a value for every three hours. This is because charged particles take roughly three days to reach our planet and so if conditions are right, this will tell you when and where Auroral activity might be seen in the near future!

northern light forecast

Short-Term 3-Day Aurora Forecasts: Predicting the Lights Every 3 Hours

So, what's the deal with short-term 3-day Aurora forecasts? In a nutshell, these forecasts give you estimated values every three hours for the next 72 hours. That's because it takes about three days for particles emitted from the Sun to reach Earth and create the Aurora.

With a short-term 3-day forecast, you can see more accurate up to 72 hours ahead prediction for every three hours to see how likely it is that you'll see those beautiful lights in the night sky and when they will be the most likely visible. This kind of prediction accuracy can be super helpful when you're trying to plan your Northern Lights observing trip.

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How to Find the Best Place for Aurora Viewing?

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The forecasting process does take into account factors like solar wind speed, direction, strength and density — all of which affect how many particles reach Earth's atmosphere and create Auroras.

So don't let the complexity of predicting the Northern Lights daunt you — use this information to get a better sense of when (and where) you should be looking up into the night sky!
the northern lights forecast

Why the 27 and 3-Day Forecasts Work: Understanding Particle Travel Time

You might wonder why aurora forecasts work on a 27-day timeline, or why there's also a 3-day forecast.

The key to understanding both of these is the travel time of particles emitted by the Sun. It usually takes about three days for them to get here—and that's why there's a 3-day Aurora forecast.

On the other hand, it takes the Sun approximately 27 days to complete one full rotation—and that's why there's a 27-day Aurora forecast.

So, if you want the advanced warning of an Aurora event, be sure to look at both the 27-day and 3-day forecasts for your geographic area to get the most accurate Northern Lights prediction!

Can You See Aurora in the City?

the northern lights forecast

Other Factors Impacting Aurora Predictions: More Than Just Solar Wind

Something you may not know is that Solar Wind isn't the only thing that affects Aurora predictions. There are other meteorological factors to consider too.

Solar Flares
Solar flares are huge spikes in the solar wind plasma, which means more charged particles heading towards Earth and possibly more active Aurora. Solar flares can be really tough to forecast, so they can be a bit of a wildcard when it comes to Aurora forecasts.

How long Are Northern Lights Visible?

the northern lights forecast
Geomagnetic Activity
Geomagnetic activity — or storms of charged particles — is caused by solar winds and other particles colliding with Earth's atmosphere and magnetic field, or magnetosphere. These geomagnetic storms cause Aurora activity, but again, predicting these storms accurately can be tricky.

Kp Index
The Kp Index measures geomagnetic activity on a 9-point scale from 0 (little to no activity) to 9 (extremely high activity). The 27-day Aurora forecast uses this Kp Index to work out whether there's likely to be Aurora activity in the future.

So there you have it—it's not just the Solar Wind that affects your 27-day Aurora forecast — there are other conditions and phenomena that also play their part in predicting when you might be able to see this amazing natural phenomenon!

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Eye vs Camera view Compared

aurora prediction

Best Practices for Using Aurora Forecasts: Planning Your Viewing

When it comes to planning your aurora viewing, understanding the Aurora forecast can be extremely helpful. Here are a few best practices to use when planning your next adventure to soak up the Northern Lights:

Check the Data
The great thing about an Aurora forecast is that it provides specific data each day, so you can plan ahead with confidence. You can check the 27-day forecast and know specifically what you're looking at ahead of time. Additionally, if you're looking for something in the short term, check out a 3-Day Aurora Forecast—it gives you the information in 3-hour blocks, so you know when it's best to get out and observe!

Aurora Photography with a Smartphone: How to be ready & Is Tripod Essential?

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Make Sure You're in Position & Ready To Go
Once you've got your forecast all set and ready to go, make sure your equipment is prepped and get yourself in position. If you're near a magnetic pole like Greenland or Canada, then this isn't as much of an issue since there are more sightings year-round. But for many of us who live slightly further away from these areas, it's important to make sure that we're in the right place at the right time!

Be Prepared For Inclement Weather
Auroras can often be accompanied by cold temperatures, so make sure you dress appropriately for whatever weather may come your way. Nothing ruins a great opportunity for an Aurora sighting like being stuck without proper attire!

How Far Away Can Be Aurora Visible?

How to Understand Real-time Aurora Activity?

forecast northern lights

Conclusion

With the knowledge of how Aurora forecasts work, you’ll be able to plan your Northern Lights viewing adventures with more confidence. Remember, the forecast isn’t guaranteed, but with a bit of luck and good planning, you may be able to catch a glimpse of the stunning lights.

No matter what, don’t forget that the best Aurora viewing experience takes a bit of preparation and a lot of patience. Whether you get the chance to see the lights or not, keep your eyes up in the night sky—you don’t know what you might see.

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